20080521-Citi-Gaming
Macau Visitation +11.8% in April
Macau Visitors +11.8% in April — The Macau government reported an 11.8%
yr/yr increase in visitor volume in April to 2.5m (against a difficult +19.1% comp).
Macau visitor volume increased 22.8% in FY’07 and 16.3% YTD.
Implications — Visitation continues to track below gaming revenue growth (+44%
in April), suggesting that the VIP segment is still the primary driver of overall
results. We expect this to continue in the near term due in part to greater
availability of credit. Mass market trends could accelerate over the next few
years, as new properties on Cotai are built out.
Segments — Visitation supports mass market play, but is not a leading indicator
for VIP play, which represents approximately 65% of the total revenue base.
Supply Growth — Visitation continues to be driven by recent casino openings and
expansions (most notably, Venetian, Sands, Wynn, Starworld, Grand Waldo, Grand
Lisboa, Crown, MGM, Ponte 16).
Visitors by Location — Visitors from Mainland China rose 29.8%, representing
60% of total visitors. Visitors from Hong Kong decreased 18%, representing 25%
of total visitors. IVS visitors from China increased 5.1% (41% of total mainland
visitors).
Looking Forward to May — The comp is difficult (+24.3%) and calendar is
favorable (two extra weekend days vs. last year).
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